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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–6 on winners
spread MAE 11.2
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Southern Illinois
@
Drake
|
+18.2 | 147.2 | 95% | 55–86 | ✓ |
Hampton
@
Radford
|
+6.4 | 127.7 | 72% | 66–79 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Coppin State
|
+13.2 | 153.8 | 89% | 78–86 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Indiana
|
+1.1 | 142.3 | 54% | 55–63 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
Oklahoma State
|
+2.0 | 145.1 | 57% | 87–84 | ✗ |
Colorado State
@
San Diego State
|
+4.9 | 125.8 | 67% | 65–78 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Fresno State
|
-2.0 | 155.0 | 43% | 61–81 | ✗ |
Jackson State
@
Alabama State
|
+4.6 | 126.0 | 66% | 60–44 | ✗ |
Holy Cross
@
Boston University
|
+10.4 | 153.5 | 83% | 68–66 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Kent State
|
+4.2 | 144.8 | 65% | 84–82 | ✗ |
Campbell
@
Gardner-Webb
|
+3.2 | 139.2 | 61% | 70–85 | ✓ |
Winthrop
@
Charleston Southern
|
-20.2 | 148.9 | 3% | 78–76 | ✓ |
Florida Atlantic
@
James Madison
|
+7.4 | 147.7 | 75% | 70–79 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Fordham
|
-20.5 | 129.1 | 3% | 54–55 | ✗ |
Longwood
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
+0.9 | 140.7 | 53% | 59–65 | ✓ |
|
Hampton
@
Radford
|
+6.4 | 127.7 | 72% | 65–76 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Bowling Green
|
+12.3 | 161.4 | 87% | 69–90 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Ohio
|
+26.2 | 136.0 | 99% | 73–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.