Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | UPST -105 LONG -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +6 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -0.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -1.7 (+4.3) | 138.7 (-14.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -1.0 (+5.0) | 134.4 (-10.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -1.2 (+4.8) | 138.3 (-14.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -1.3 (+4.7) | 138.5 (-14.5) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | LONG 82 – 75 UPST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UPST 65 – 60 LONG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LONG 83 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LONG 80 – 54 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UPST 69 – 64 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-18 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 3-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#288) | -5.4 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#277) | -2.37 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#269) | -2.73 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#245) | 0.380 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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