Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | FRES -165 WYO +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +20 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | WYO -2.1 (+22.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WYO -2.9 (+22.9) | 149.9 (-7.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WYO -0.1 (+20.1) | 146.1 (-4.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WYO -2.9 (+22.9) | 152.3 (-10.3) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WYO -2.6 (+22.6) | 151.2 (-9.2) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | WYO 92 – 82 FRES |
| Jan 18, 2026 | FRES 63 – 60 WYO |
| Mar 5, 2025 | FRES 62 – 58 WYO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WYO 83 – 72 FRES |
| Mar 13, 2024 | FRES 77 – 73 WYO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | WYO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-12 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 7-5 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#268) | -1.0 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#287) | 0.55 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#285) | 0.66 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#186) | 0.411 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | WYO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 21.7% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 83.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 43.4% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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