Betting Lines
| Spread | WYO -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | WYO -550 FRES +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WYO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WYO +10 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | WYO -6.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+29.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WYO -5.5 (+4.5) | 144.6 (+29.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WYO -5.5 (+4.5) | 144.0 (+30.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WYO -5.5 (+4.5) | 142.2 (+31.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WYO -5.3 (+4.7) | 144.5 (+29.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | FRES 63 – 60 WYO |
| Mar 5, 2025 | FRES 62 – 58 WYO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WYO 83 – 72 FRES |
| Mar 13, 2024 | FRES 77 – 73 WYO |
| Mar 10, 2024 | WYO 86 – 47 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WYO | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#92) | 2.8 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#125) | 0.10 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#107) | 0.31 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#161) | 0.499 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WYO | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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