I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
Mountain West Conference · Save Mart Center · March 10, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread FRES -1.5 Away covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money FRES -125 / WYO +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total FRES win
Actual WYO +39 133 Lost
Massey FRES -1.3 (-40.3)
Massey Totals 143.4 (-10.4)
Bradley-Terry 46%
Weighted B-T 50%
Efficiency Plus ML FRES -0.1 (-39.1) 140.5 (-7.5) 46%
Baseline Tuned ML FRES -0.1 (-39.1) 140.9 (-7.9) 51%
Baseline ML WYO -0.2 (-38.8) 141.8 (-8.8) 42%
Baseline Plus ML WYO -1.6 (-37.4) 142.7 (-9.7) 40%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 18, 2026 WYO 9282 FRES
Jan 18, 2026 FRES 6360 WYO
Mar 5, 2025 FRES 6258 WYO
Jan 29, 2025 WYO 8372 FRES
Mar 13, 2024 FRES 7773 WYO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FRES WYO
Overall 12-21 15-17
Conference 4-14 8-10
Home 7-9 9-5
Away 3-9 3-10
Neutral 2-3 3-2
Last 5 0-5 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.4 71.6
Avg Pts Against 74.2 75.6
Massey -2.5 (#205) -0.7 (#173)
Bradley-Terry -0.27 (#204) 0.49 (#129)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.27 (#192) 0.37 (#144)
RPI 0.475 (#238) 0.512 (#149)
Shooting & Four Factors FRES WYO
FG% 45.6% 43.8%
3PT% 33.3% 35.3%
REB / G 31.3 34.1
OREB / G 7.8 9.5
AST / TO 1.00 0.85
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.0% 50.3%
TOV% 18.7% 18.8%
ORB% 24.3% 28.5%
FT Rate 20.2% 29.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.8% 53.3%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 15.5%
DRB% 69.5% 70.5%
Opp FT Rate 18.5% 19.9%

Game Analysis

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