Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | FOR +600 DAY -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +1 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -20.5 (+21.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (-20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -13.3 (+14.3) | 130.3 (-21.3) | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -9.9 (+10.9) | 124.5 (-15.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -12.6 (+13.6) | 125.2 (-16.2) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -15.6 (+16.6) | 125.9 (-16.9) | 18% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DAY 63 – 56 FOR |
| Feb 13, 2025 | DAY 93 – 76 FOR |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DAY 78 – 70 FOR |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DAY 78 – 68 FOR |
| Jan 11, 2023 | DAY 82 – 58 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-12 | 14-10 |
| Conference | 2-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 2-5 | 8-3 |
| Away | 0-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 51.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -21.9 (#340) | 2.0 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.50 (#336) | 0.90 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.40 (#336) | 1.45 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.260 (#339) | 0.570 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 29.7% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 14.6% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 32.4% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 65.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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