Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +230 JKST -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +16 | 104 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -4.9 (-20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.9 (-22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -2.5 (-18.5) | 127.2 (-23.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -3.3 (-12.7) | 130.7 (-26.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -1.0 (-17.0) | 127.7 (-23.7) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | JKST 75 – 64 ALST |
| Mar 16, 2025 | ALST 60 – 56 JKST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JKST 77 – 70 ALST |
| Jan 12, 2024 | JKST 73 – 63 ALST |
| Jan 7, 2023 | JKST 61 – 58 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-0 |
| Home | 3-6 | 6-0 |
| Away | 1-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#325) | -14.5 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#328) | -2.51 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.03 (#332) | -3.91 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.222 (#340) | 0.367 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 30.5% | 33.5% |
| 3PT% | 10.0% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 32.2% | 37.1% |
| TOV% | 28.3% | 27.1% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.1% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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