Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | JMU +110 FAU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -7.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -4.3 (+4.7) | 139.6 (+9.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -4.7 (+4.3) | 143.4 (+5.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -4.8 (+4.2) | 142.6 (+6.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -3.8 (+5.2) | 142.0 (+7.0) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2021 | JMU 69 – 65 FAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#197) | -5.5 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#267) | -0.95 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#275) | -1.65 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#220) | 0.368 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 60.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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