Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -4.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -2.6 (-6.6) | 146.4 (-12.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -2.4 (-6.4) | 148.8 (-14.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -2.8 (-6.8) | 151.0 (-17.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -2.8 (-6.8) | 151.0 (-17.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2021 | JMU 79 – 70 FAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#256) | -2.0 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.54 (#331) | 0.55 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.77 (#334) | 0.03 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#315) | 0.519 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 78.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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