Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
| Money | OHIO -1600 NIU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -28.5 (-25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -21.2 (-18.2) | 140.2 (+8.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -18.3 (-15.3) | 137.5 (+11.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -24.5 (-21.5) | 140.3 (+8.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -23.2 (-20.2) | 140.9 (+8.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | OHIO 74 – 66 NIU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OHIO 80 – 77 NIU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OHIO 108 – 70 NIU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | OHIO 80 – 59 NIU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-8 | 3-16 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 2-12 |
| Home | 8-3 | 2-7 |
| Away | 4-4 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#73) | -17.8 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#137) | -3.05 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#134) | -4.38 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#101) | 0.392 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 21.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 40.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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