Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ +105 CONN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +11 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -0.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -1.6 (-12.6) | 140.2 (-21.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -0.1 (-10.9) | 138.1 (-19.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -1.3 (-12.3) | 141.1 (-22.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -1.5 (-12.5) | 141.9 (-22.9) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MARQ 68 – 62 CONN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CONN 72 – 66 MARQ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | CONN 77 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 15-8 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 11-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#62) | 11.1 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#66) | 1.80 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#62) | 2.97 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#80) | 0.613 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 16.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 42.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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