Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
| Money | USF +100 TLSA -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +10 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -0.6 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (-14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -1.1 (-11.1) | 130.4 (-18.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -1.4 (-11.4) | 129.4 (-17.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -1.9 (-11.9) | 130.6 (-18.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -0.5 (-10.5) | 131.8 (-19.8) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | USF 80 – 74 TLSA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USF 93 – 78 TLSA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USF 63 – 56 TLSA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TLSA 76 – 70 USF |
| Feb 15, 2024 | USF 69 – 50 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-13 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 4-6 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-4 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#126) | 6.4 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#82) | 1.65 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#79) | 1.74 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#92) | 0.529 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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