Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | GMU +210 VCU -265 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +5 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -11.7 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -10.6 (+5.6) | 141.0 (-14.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -7.9 (+2.9) | 140.9 (-13.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -9.2 (+4.2) | 144.1 (-17.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -9.7 (+4.7) | 142.3 (-15.3) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VCU 70 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | GMU 86 – 80 VCU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | VCU 68 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VCU 70 – 54 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | VCU 54 – 50 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 19-7 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Home | 7-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-4 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#202) | 12.8 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#161) | 2.18 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#199) | 3.19 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#148) | 0.598 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 25.8% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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