Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UNM +700 USU -1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +32 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -10.9 (-21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -9.9 (-22.1) | 136.3 (-14.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -12.3 (-19.7) | 133.8 (-11.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -15.7 (-16.3) | 137.3 (-15.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -13.6 (-18.4) | 136.4 (-14.4) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USU 94 – 90 UNM |
| Feb 5, 2026 | USU 86 – 66 UNM |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNM 82 – 79 USU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNM 82 – 63 USU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USU 87 – 85 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 20-9 |
| Conference | 2-15 | 15-4 |
| Home | 1-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 62.3 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#276) | 7.1 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#221) | 0.72 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#226) | 0.51 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#108) | 0.520 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 80.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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