Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -800 BC +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +1 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -6.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -5.1 (-4.1) | 146.5 (+18.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -4.5 (-3.5) | 146.5 (+18.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -4.5 (-3.5) | 147.4 (+17.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -5.5 (-4.5) | 149.1 (+15.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | DUKE 67 – 49 BC |
| Jan 19, 2025 | DUKE 88 – 63 BC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | DUKE 80 – 65 BC |
| Jan 7, 2023 | DUKE 65 – 64 BC |
| Dec 3, 2022 | DUKE 75 – 59 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 4-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 2-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 3-5 |
| Away | 3-6 | 0-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#115) | 0.5 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#130) | -0.00 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#102) | 0.35 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#186) | 0.511 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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