Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.0 Over |
| Money | UVA -1300 WAKE +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -7.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.3 (+2.7) | 133.2 (-2.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -6.5 (+2.5) | 126.1 (+4.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -8.1 (+0.9) | 127.9 (+3.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -7.5 (+1.5) | 133.5 (-2.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVA 75 – 70 WAKE |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UVA 83 – 75 WAKE |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UVA 49 – 47 WAKE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | WAKE 66 – 47 UVA |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UVA 76 – 67 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-1 | 5-6 |
| Away | 6-3 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#31) | 7.9 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#98) | -0.41 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#71) | -0.50 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#114) | 0.420 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 28.9% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 80.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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