Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Under |
| Money | XAV -300 SJU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -10.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (-35.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -11.5 (-3.5) | 162.5 (-32.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -8.2 (-0.2) | 152.7 (-22.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -11.5 (-3.5) | 158.7 (-28.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -11.0 (-3.0) | 159.6 (-29.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2026 | SJU 87 – 82 XAV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SJU 88 – 83 XAV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SJU 79 – 71 XAV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SJU 82 – 72 XAV |
| Jan 31, 2024 | XAV 88 – 77 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-8 | 16-11 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 10-9 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#44) | 3.4 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#35) | 0.98 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#47) | 1.40 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#32) | 0.529 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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