Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | TENN -400 ARK +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -7.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -6.6 (-1.6) | 146.6 (+6.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -5.5 (-0.5) | 145.4 (+7.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -5.2 (-0.2) | 150.6 (+2.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -5.9 (-0.9) | 147.5 (+5.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ARK 86 – 75 TENN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TENN 76 – 52 ARK |
| Feb 15, 2024 | TENN 92 – 63 ARK |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TENN 75 – 57 ARK |
| Mar 5, 2022 | TENN 78 – 74 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-9 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 13-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-4 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#3) | 16.2 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#21) | 2.38 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.29 (#15) | 3.21 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#75) | 0.536 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 44.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.