Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | MISS -320 AUB +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -7.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -5.2 (+5.8) | 138.0 (-5.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -4.1 (+6.9) | 139.0 (-6.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -5.4 (+5.6) | 140.3 (-7.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -4.8 (+6.2) | 138.1 (-5.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MISS 85 – 79 AUB |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AUB 78 – 66 MISS |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AUB 62 – 57 MISS |
| Feb 27, 2025 | AUB 106 – 76 MISS |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AUB 92 – 82 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#52) | 5.7 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#135) | 1.40 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#107) | 1.95 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#155) | 0.550 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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