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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–14 on winners
spread MAE 8.7
50 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USC
@
Arizona State
|
-10.9 | 153.3 | 16% | 73–64 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Syracuse
|
+16.2 | 144.3 | 93% | 69–74 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
LSU New Orleans
|
-0.1 | 139.1 | 50% | 64–86 | ✗ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Cleveland State
|
+6.6 | 123.9 | 73% | 71–74 | ✓ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
+16.8 | 147.3 | 94% | 80–90 | ✓ |
Stetson
@
North Alabama
|
-2.0 | 147.4 | 43% | 66–73 | ✗ |
Louisiana Tech
@
Western Kentucky
|
+4.2 | 145.1 | 65% | 63–58 | ✗ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Old Dominion
|
+7.5 | 139.0 | 75% | 55–64 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Saint Mary's
|
+9.8 | 118.7 | 81% | 66–64 | ✗ |
Hawai'i
@
UC Riverside
|
+1.7 | 150.8 | 56% | 68–70 | ✓ |
Gonzaga
@
Portland
|
-31.5 | 166.9 | 0% | 116–88 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
Kansas City
|
-0.3 | 127.0 | 49% | 68–62 | ✓ |
California Baptist
@
Utah Valley
|
+7.9 | 151.2 | 76% | 77–81 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Tarleton State
|
-4.9 | 140.1 | 33% | 59–48 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+6.6 | 161.7 | 72% | 72–75 | ✓ |
North Dakota
@
Oral Roberts
|
+11.5 | 146.5 | 85% | 57–74 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
North Dakota State
|
+10.5 | 133.9 | 83% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Western Illinois
@
South Dakota State
|
+16.1 | 155.9 | 93% | 63–92 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Ole Miss
|
-0.1 | 146.5 | 50% | 75–61 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Arizona
|
+6.4 | 152.6 | 72% | 81–76 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
San Diego State
|
+12.6 | 135.0 | 87% | 67–69 | ✓ |
Rice
@
UTEP
|
+10.5 | 155.0 | 83% | 71–68 | ✗ |
Oregon
@
Utah
|
-5.0 | 135.4 | 33% | 79–73 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
Cal State Bakersfield
|
+16.4 | 126.8 | 93% | 50–65 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Xavier
|
+8.0 | 148.2 | 77% | 73–74 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
New Hampshire
|
-4.2 | 132.6 | 35% | 68–66 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Winthrop
|
+12.0 | 159.7 | 86% | 83–91 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
Hampton
|
-2.3 | 146.6 | 42% | 85–77 | ✓ |
Hartford
@
UMass Lowell
|
+3.1 | 130.7 | 61% | 75–58 | ✗ |
Drexel
@
Charleston
|
-3.1 | 127.9 | 39% | 68–73 | ✗ |
South Carolina State
@
Florida A&M
|
+22.1 | 141.1 | 98% | 68–70 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Norfolk State
|
-2.8 | 140.1 | 40% | 85–89 | ✗ |
Illinois State
@
Evansville
|
+6.6 | 135.1 | 73% | 73–68 | ✗ |
Missouri State
@
Valparaiso
|
-7.0 | 144.2 | 26% | 78–68 | ✓ |
Marist
@
Monmouth
|
+11.0 | 151.0 | 84% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Vermont
@
Binghamton
|
-8.1 | 143.2 | 23% | 84–44 | ✓ |
Maine
@
NJIT
|
+9.1 | 130.0 | 79% | 45–41 | ✗ |
Minnesota
@
Iowa
|
+12.3 | 173.3 | 87% | 71–86 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Navy
|
+5.5 | 143.9 | 69% | 58–73 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Army
|
+12.0 | 142.5 | 86% | 70–61 | ✗ |
Siena
@
Fairfield
|
-14.9 | 127.1 | 9% | 75–68 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Northern Iowa
|
-3.6 | 135.0 | 37% | 72–78 | ✗ |
Radford
@
Charleston Southern
|
-5.9 | 122.9 | 29% | 68–48 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Wichita State
|
+5.9 | 147.7 | 70% | 76–82 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Virginia Tech
|
+10.8 | 148.6 | 84% | 63–77 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Nebraska
|
-6.8 | 138.6 | 27% | 84–76 | ✓ |
Bucknell
@
Lafayette
|
+17.5 | 147.7 | 94% | 76–87 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Boston University
|
-10.8 | 157.3 | 16% | 89–45 | ✓ |
Campbell
@
Longwood
|
+0.1 | 135.3 | 50% | 69–78 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Indiana State
|
-6.1 | 135.7 | 29% | 71–76 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.