Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +160 MOST -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +10 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -6.9 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -5.0 (-5.0) | 144.2 (+1.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -5.9 (-4.1) | 142.9 (+3.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -5.7 (-4.3) | 146.7 (-0.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -6.3 (-3.7) | 146.3 (-0.3) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | VAL 66 – 64 MOST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | VAL 73 – 72 MOST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MOST 82 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MOST 81 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 2, 2023 | MOST 76 – 67 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-18 | 17-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#214) | 6.9 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#299) | 0.88 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#282) | 0.90 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#295) | 0.499 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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