Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | UCR -220 HAW +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -1.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -3.0 (-1.0) | 145.9 (-7.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -3.8 (-1.8) | 146.8 (-8.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -5.2 (-3.2) | 145.0 (-7.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HAW 93 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 2, 2026 | HAW 88 – 45 UCR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCR 82 – 76 HAW |
| Jan 10, 2025 | HAW 83 – 76 UCR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | HAW 76 – 73 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-8 | 11-10 |
| Conference | 8-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#107) | 6.2 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#195) | 1.74 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#190) | 2.46 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#270) | 0.682 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 9.1% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 14.3% |
| FT Rate | 13.8% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 80.3% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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