Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | UNH +120 UMBC -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -4.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -2.6 (+0.6) | 133.9 (+0.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -1.9 (-0.1) | 131.3 (+2.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -3.2 (+1.2) | 134.2 (-0.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -2.6 (+0.6) | 133.0 (+1.0) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 69 UNH |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UMBC 85 – 63 UNH |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 74 UNH |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNH 79 – 78 UMBC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNH 79 – 76 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-9 | 14-6 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 10-4 |
| Home | 5-6 | 5-4 |
| Away | 5-3 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#250) | 1.5 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#255) | 0.20 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#255) | 0.07 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#217) | 0.463 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.1% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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