Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ASU +160 USC -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +9 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -10.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -6.9 (-2.1) | 149.2 (-12.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -7.4 (-1.6) | 149.2 (-12.2) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -7.3 (-1.7) | 148.8 (-11.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -8.0 (-1.0) | 147.4 (-10.4) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | USC 88 – 75 ASU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | USC 81 – 73 ASU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ASU 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ASU 77 – 72 USC |
| Mar 5, 2023 | USC 68 – 65 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 65.1 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#117) | 16.6 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#115) | 2.53 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#119) | 3.99 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#119) | 0.625 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 41.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.