Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | VT -300 ND +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | VT -11.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -13.0 (+1.0) | 147.2 (-7.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -10.3 (+3.7) | 141.4 (-1.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -12.8 (+1.2) | 146.4 (-6.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -12.9 (+1.1) | 146.4 (-6.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VT 89 – 76 ND |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VT 65 – 63 ND |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VT 82 – 76 ND |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ND 74 – 66 VT |
| Mar 8, 2023 | VT 67 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-7 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 9-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-2 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#43) | 2.0 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#18) | -0.22 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.11 (#20) | -0.29 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#36) | 0.460 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 12.2% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 14.0% |
Game Analysis
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