Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TAR +340 GCU -430 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +11 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -4.7 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-32.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -2.6 (-8.4) | 138.3 (-31.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -4.0 (-7.0) | 130.3 (-23.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -2.9 (-8.1) | 137.7 (-30.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -3.2 (-7.8) | 138.8 (-31.8) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2025 | GCU 64 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | GCU 88 – 64 TAR |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TAR 77 – 74 GCU |
| Jan 14, 2024 | GCU 74 – 48 TAR |
| Jan 29, 2023 | TAR 81 – 62 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-10 | 17-7 |
| Conference | 5-7 | 9-3 |
| Home | 6-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-1 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#235) | 3.3 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#310) | -0.06 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.48 (#294) | 0.40 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#287) | 0.447 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.49 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 28.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 35.3% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.7% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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