Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | COFC +110 DREX -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -2.8 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -0.8 (+5.8) | 131.3 (+9.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -2.0 (+7.0) | 125.9 (+15.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -1.5 (+6.5) | 130.6 (+10.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -1.7 (+6.7) | 131.4 (+9.6) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | COFC 72 – 63 DREX |
| Feb 22, 2025 | DREX 64 – 55 COFC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | COFC 80 – 70 DREX |
| Feb 3, 2023 | DREX 70 – 69 COFC |
| Feb 26, 2022 | DREX 80 – 79 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-10 | 12-8 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 4-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 3-2 |
| Away | 1-3 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#249) | 0.5 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#246) | -0.34 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#253) | -0.27 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#229) | 0.480 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 80.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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