Betting Lines
| Spread | EVAN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN -265 ILST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | EVAN -7.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -5.2 (-10.2) | 133.1 (+7.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EVAN -5.1 (-10.1) | 132.2 (+8.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -5.7 (-10.7) | 134.0 (+7.0) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -5.4 (-10.4) | 133.9 (+7.1) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | EVAN 88 – 80 ILST |
| Jan 1, 2026 | ILST 73 – 47 EVAN |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILST 62 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | EVAN 69 – 51 ILST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | EVAN 59 – 53 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 7-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-4 | 3-8 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#242) | -8.8 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#180) | -1.54 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#188) | -1.73 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#209) | 0.395 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 17.9% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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