Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | NORF -155 MORG +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +4 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | MORG -3.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+33.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -0.3 (+3.7) | 140.1 (+33.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -1.5 (+5.5) | 138.9 (+35.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -0.7 (+4.7) | 140.2 (+33.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -0.7 (+4.7) | 139.2 (+34.8) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
Game Analysis
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