Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA -200 UIW +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +22 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -0.7 (+22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -0.2 (+21.8) | 136.6 (+13.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -1.0 (+21.0) | 137.8 (+12.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -0.4 (+21.6) | 142.3 (+7.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -0.1 (+21.9) | 139.2 (+10.8) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NOLA 78 – 64 UIW |
| Dec 9, 2025 | NOLA 84 – 83 UIW |
| Feb 11, 2025 | UIW 75 – 65 NOLA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UIW 74 – 58 NOLA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NOLA 87 – 80 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 8-14 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 5-9 |
| Home | 6-3 | 5-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#318) | -8.2 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.78 (#337) | -2.09 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.04 (#337) | -3.75 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.342 (#330) | 0.449 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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