Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | CLE -145 NKU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -6.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.0 (+21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -5.7 (-2.7) | 128.5 (+16.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -4.6 (-1.6) | 129.7 (+15.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -6.0 (-3.0) | 127.1 (+17.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -5.9 (-2.9) | 128.2 (+16.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NKU 81 – 70 CLE |
| Dec 4, 2025 | NKU 95 – 80 CLE |
| Mar 7, 2025 | CLE 68 – 63 NKU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | NKU 85 – 75 CLE |
| Jan 16, 2025 | CLE 76 – 58 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-8 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#177) | -4.4 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#97) | -0.41 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#135) | -0.78 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#40) | 0.480 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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