Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -180 PROV +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -8.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -6.9 (-5.9) | 148.8 (-1.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -5.0 (-4.0) | 148.2 (-1.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -6.8 (-5.8) | 150.9 (-3.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -7.2 (-6.2) | 149.6 (-2.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | PROV 94 – 84 XAV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | XAV 97 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | XAV 76 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 13, 2025 | XAV 91 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PROV 79 – 75 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-8 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 9-10 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-3 |
| Away | 2-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#34) | 6.3 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#26) | 1.74 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#37) | 2.44 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#31) | 0.551 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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