Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -700 GWEB +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +8 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -12.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -11.8 (-3.8) | 153.7 (+20.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -10.1 (-2.1) | 149.5 (+24.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -11.8 (-3.8) | 154.5 (+19.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -11.9 (-3.9) | 153.8 (+20.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | WIN 103 – 85 GWEB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | WIN 88 – 77 GWEB |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WIN 96 – 93 GWEB |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GWEB 89 – 83 WIN |
| Mar 2, 2024 | GWEB 65 – 64 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-2 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 10-0 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#70) | -1.6 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#19) | -0.95 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.11 (#21) | -1.48 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#38) | 0.499 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 79.8% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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