Anger is an energy. "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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79–21 on winners spread MAE 10.1 100 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Eastern Kentucky @ Purdue +31.8 154.9 91% 53–80 ✓
Illinois State @ Kentucky +18.8 147.4 89% 70–96 ✓
Radford @ Clemson +15.1 142.2 87% 58–93 ✓
Charlotte @ Stetson -0.1 138.3 51% 75–79 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Iowa +14.3 162.5 87% 74–103 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue Fort Wayne +10.9 146.4 85% 60–73 ✓
Evansville @ Cincinnati +12.8 151.4 86% 58–76 ✓
Niagara @ Buffalo +0.9 144.4 49% 69–63 ✗
East Tennessee State @ East Carolina +4.8 135.6 69% 86–70 ✗
McNeese @ Michigan +2.9 149.0 64% 87–76 ✗
Alabama State @ South Florida +11.8 140.1 86% 70–73 ✓
Maine @ Minnesota +13.4 137.7 87% 62–80 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Saint Joseph's +20.0 135.3 90% 56–97 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ UCF +21.1 139.3 89% 54–98 ✓
American University @ UMBC +1.4 156.7 54% 87–85 ✗
LSU New Orleans @ Stephen F. Austin +10.7 146.1 86% 51–80 ✓
South Carolina State @ Nebraska +21.4 147.8 90% 62–91 ✓
Charleston Southern @ North Carolina +24.9 150.1 91% 60–105 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Texas +12.7 144.6 84% 37–72 ✓
Kent State @ Saint Mary's +10.2 139.3 80% 46–66 ✓
UNC Asheville @ UAB +3.5 150.7 66% 85–90 ✓
Robert Morris @ Milwaukee +1.9 150.5 56% 75–78 ✓
Northwestern State @ LSU +21.2 145.1 91% 55–96 ✓
Jackson State @ Northwestern +17.0 143.0 89% 63–74 ✓
Denver @ Omaha -3.1 149.9 39% 95–80 ✓
St. Thomas @ North Dakota -0.6 131.8 50% 70–45 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Kansas City -0.4 145.9 54% 60–77 ✗
South Dakota @ North Dakota State +6.7 152.8 76% 75–66 ✗
Washington State @ Utah +7.5 143.2 80% 58–80 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +5.8 135.6 66% 58–67 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Southeast Missouri State +1.6 137.6 56% 91–93 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Illinois +27.9 161.1 91% 71–104 ✓
San Diego State @ Gonzaga +5.5 144.5 69% 84–74 ✗
Washington @ Colorado +6.4 161.5 77% 69–73 ✓
Utah Valley @ Boise State +12.7 134.8 85% 63–85 ✓
Fresno State @ San Diego +4.8 141.9 73% 71–67 ✗
Tarleton State @ Loyola Marymount +4.2 133.4 65% 79–66 ✗
Arizona @ California -14.5 164.4 15% 100–81 ✓
Arizona State @ Stanford +4.1 142.7 69% 76–73 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse +1.1 141.2 62% 73–81 ✓
Virginia @ Notre Dame -8.5 125.9 25% 54–76 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Delaware State -0.2 145.3 45% 73–77 ✗
William & Mary @ Navy +6.6 141.7 78% 65–77 ✓
Stonehill @ Rutgers +21.8 134.0 91% 58–59 ✓
Hofstra @ St. John's +5.1 141.3 69% 79–84 ✓
Lipscomb @ Florida State +6.0 143.7 72% 78–75 ✗
Northeastern @ Rhode Island +0.3 144.4 55% 71–82 ✓
Columbia @ Fordham +2.1 144.2 63% 78–87 ✓
UL Monroe @ App State +16.5 140.8 88% 55–67 ✓
Siena @ Massachusetts +29.8 145.4 91% 66–79 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Florida +17.2 156.8 87% 72–97 ✓
Davidson @ Ohio -4.9 141.3 32% 72–69 ✓
Creighton @ Marquette +4.0 146.6 75% 67–72 ✓
Queens University @ Duke +26.8 159.3 91% 69–106 ✓
Texas State @ James Madison +15.7 143.2 88% 65–82 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest +2.7 140.6 67% 63–86 ✓
Central Michigan @ Loyola Chicago +11.9 140.9 86% 35–73 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Bucknell +1.4 125.8 50% 67–58 ✗
Indiana State @ Michigan State +5.7 146.9 72% 75–87 ✓
Howard @ La Salle +7.1 156.5 74% 71–66 ✗
Florida A&M @ South Carolina +20.3 132.4 90% 62–94 ✓
Princeton @ Delaware -2.2 143.9 37% 84–82 ✓
Lehigh @ Marist +12.3 130.6 75% 65–58 ✗
Liberty @ Alabama +6.9 152.6 73% 56–101 ✓
Merrimack @ Boston University +0.4 126.5 53% 63–74 ✓
Iona @ Harvard +4.2 142.2 69% 69–60 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ George Mason +18.2 147.1 89% 69–94 ✓
Troy @ Coastal Carolina -1.7 154.2 44% 72–65 ✓
Arkansas State @ Georgia State +1.8 145.0 59% 90–91 ✓
Longwood @ Dayton +11.4 138.6 84% 69–78 ✓
Le Moyne @ Fairfield +9.5 141.8 82% 72–78 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ VCU +14.2 140.5 87% 73–87 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Georgia +21.2 149.2 91% 73–93 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Western Kentucky +8.2 149.8 81% 84–86 ✓
Southern Miss @ Georgia Southern -2.4 141.2 41% 67–88 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Missouri +16.7 148.8 88% 59–92 ✓
Wichita State @ Kansas +8.6 142.5 78% 67–86 ✓
Colgate @ Cornell +8.1 147.9 75% 64–77 ✓
Chicago State @ DePaul +3.8 133.4 64% 58–70 ✓
Lafayette @ Richmond +19.6 135.2 90% 38–59 ✓
Campbell @ Saint Francis +1.1 125.0 52% 76–78 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech -3.7 154.2 38% 81–73 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Murray State +4.5 131.9 65% 54–75 ✓
Louisiana @ Marshall -1.2 148.6 48% 61–75 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ George Washington +19.9 147.5 90% 63–69 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Akron -2.8 142.3 31% 62–61 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Long Beach State +5.2 156.1 68% 84–68 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado +3.3 150.8 58% 77–92 ✓
Montana State @ Weber State +11.8 136.6 86% 64–86 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon +8.4 137.3 80% 59–64 ✓
Dartmouth @ Vanderbilt +5.4 130.9 69% 53–69 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Arkansas +5.4 150.9 72% 90–106 ✓
Florida International @ Utah Tech +6.0 146.3 71% 92–96 ✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee State +2.1 154.1 61% 82–90 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Davis +5.7 136.6 73% 46–71 ✓
Portland State @ Idaho -0.3 138.5 56% 77–72 ✓
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +11.5 141.9 85% 61–87 ✓
Wyoming @ BYU +28.0 152.8 91% 68–94 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ San Francisco +35.6 129.0 91% 42–92 ✓
Montana @ Idaho State -1.9 141.1 43% 76–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.