Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -500 CP +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +25 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -9.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -7.7 (+17.3) | 135.1 (-18.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -5.8 (+19.2) | 135.9 (-18.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -5.7 (+19.3) | 136.6 (-19.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -6.1 (+18.9) | 136.9 (-19.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UCD 67 – 58 CP |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CP 84 – 78 UCD |
| Mar 13, 2025 | CP 86 – 76 UCD |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCD 65 – 54 CP |
| Dec 6, 2024 | UCD 77 – 66 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 0-20 |
| Home | 10-6 | 3-11 |
| Away | 8-6 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L20 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#241) | -8.3 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#274) | -1.04 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#255) | -1.68 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#282) | 0.411 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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