Hop in my Chrysler, it's as big as a whale and it's about to set sail. "Love Shack" - The B-52's
UC Davis Aggies
71 – 46
FINAL Conference
Cal Poly Mustangs
Big West Conference · University Credit Union Center · December 30, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UCD -9.5 Home covered
O/U 133.5 Under
Money UCD -500 / CP +450
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCD win
Actual UCD +25 117 Won
Massey UCD -9.2 (+15.8) — —
Massey Totals — 135.8 (-18.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 71% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 86% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UCD -7.7 (+17.3) 135.1 (-18.1) 81% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UCD -5.8 (+19.2) 135.9 (-18.9) 74% ✓
Baseline ML UCD -5.7 (+19.3) 136.6 (-19.6) 73% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UCD -6.1 (+18.9) 136.9 (-19.9) 75% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 7, 2026 UCD 67 – 58 CP
Jan 10, 2026 CP 84 – 78 UCD
Mar 13, 2025 CP 86 – 76 UCD
Jan 17, 2025 UCD 65 – 54 CP
Dec 6, 2024 UCD 77 – 66 CP

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCD CP
Overall 20-13 4-28
Conference 14-6 0-20
Home 10-6 3-11
Away 8-6 0-16
Neutral 2-1 1-1
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L20
Avg Pts For 70.5 63.1
Avg Pts Against 69.0 74.5
Massey -3.7 (#241) -8.3 (#308)
Bradley-Terry -1.09 (#274) -1.04 (#271)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.97 (#255) -1.68 (#281)
RPI 0.435 (#282) 0.411 (#317)
Shooting & Four Factors UCD CP
FG% 45.3% 41.2%
3PT% 33.2% 29.3%
REB / G 30.9 32.1
OREB / G 10.3 9.2
AST / TO 0.85 0.69
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 45.6%
TOV% 21.0% 18.7%
ORB% 30.8% 25.6%
FT Rate 25.5% 23.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.5% 50.1%
Opp TOV% 23.2% 17.8%
DRB% 73.3% 66.0%
Opp FT Rate 30.9% 32.2%

Game Analysis

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