Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | MUR -190 MTSU +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +21 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -6.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -3.3 (+17.7) | 129.6 (-0.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -4.3 (+16.7) | 131.7 (-2.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -4.5 (+16.5) | 131.9 (-2.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -4.8 (+16.2) | 131.6 (-2.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2025 | MTSU 90 – 87 MUR |
| Nov 16, 2024 | MUR 88 – 67 MTSU |
| Dec 22, 2022 | MTSU 83 – 67 MUR |
| Dec 5, 2021 | MUR 93 – 87 MTSU |
| Dec 3, 2020 | MTSU 78 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#260) | -7.3 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#318) | -1.22 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#307) | -1.26 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#315) | 0.428 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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