Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -250 MUR +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -8.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -6.3 (+9.7) | 140.9 (+9.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -6.6 (+9.4) | 138.9 (+11.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -5.6 (+10.4) | 139.3 (+10.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -6.2 (+9.8) | 139.7 (+10.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2025 | MTSU 90 – 87 MUR |
| Nov 16, 2024 | MUR 88 – 67 MTSU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | MUR 75 – 54 MTSU |
| Dec 5, 2021 | MUR 93 – 87 MTSU |
| Dec 3, 2020 | MTSU 78 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#119) | -0.8 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#130) | 0.38 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#135) | 0.43 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#137) | 0.518 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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