Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +6 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -11.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.9 (+56.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -9.1 (-3.1) | 134.3 (+45.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -11.0 (-5.0) | 133.9 (+46.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -10.2 (-4.2) | 134.0 (+46.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -9.7 (-3.7) | 133.9 (+46.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2025 | MTSU 90 – 87 MUR |
| Nov 16, 2024 | MUR 88 – 67 MTSU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | MUR 75 – 54 MTSU |
| Dec 22, 2022 | MTSU 83 – 67 MUR |
| Dec 3, 2020 | MTSU 78 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#42) | 3.5 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#79) | 1.13 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#82) | 1.05 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#79) | 0.532 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.2% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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