Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU +240 MUR -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +3 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -7.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -6.1 (+9.1) | 157.0 (+20.0) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -4.5 (+7.5) | 156.8 (+20.2) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -4.8 (+7.8) | 151.8 (+25.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -6.1 (+9.1) | 151.7 (+25.3) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | MUR 88 – 67 MTSU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | MUR 75 – 54 MTSU |
| Dec 22, 2022 | MTSU 83 – 67 MUR |
| Dec 5, 2021 | MUR 93 – 87 MTSU |
| Dec 3, 2020 | MTSU 78 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#163) | 7.8 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#71) | 1.02 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#84) | 1.31 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#22) | 0.483 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 58.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 34.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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