Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -145 MUR +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +21 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -15.0 (-36.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -13.5 (-34.5) | 143.8 (+11.2) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -18.6 (-39.6) | 140.9 (+14.1) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -16.6 (-37.6) | 141.5 (+13.5) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2025 | MTSU 90 – 87 MUR |
| Dec 30, 2023 | MUR 75 – 54 MTSU |
| Dec 22, 2022 | MTSU 83 – 67 MUR |
| Dec 5, 2021 | MUR 93 – 87 MTSU |
| Dec 3, 2020 | MTSU 78 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#36) | 2.9 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#34) | -0.28 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#37) | -0.27 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#179) | 0.688 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.1% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 39.6% |
Game Analysis
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