Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | DSU +162 MSM -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DSU +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -2.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -1.0 (+5.0) | 145.6 (+4.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -0.2 (+4.2) | 145.3 (+4.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -0.8 (+4.8) | 144.9 (+5.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -2.0 (+6.0) | 145.6 (+4.4) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2024 | MSM 76 – 66 DSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DSU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#307) | -1.3 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#292) | -1.65 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#289) | -2.10 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#288) | 0.416 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DSU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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