Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -360 DSU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -12.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -8.2 (+1.8) | 139.2 (+2.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -10.1 (-0.1) | 139.3 (+2.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -8.2 (+1.8) | 139.2 (+2.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -8.3 (+1.7) | 138.0 (+4.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | DSU 77 – 73 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 9-8 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 78.6 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#282) | -12.2 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#58) | -1.16 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#52) | -1.75 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#66) | 0.504 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 57.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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