All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Gersten Pavilion · December 30, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread LMU -6.5 Away covered
O/U 133.5 Over
Money LMU -300 / TAR +300
Model Predictions
Spread Total LMU win
Actual TAR +13 145 Lost
Massey LMU -7.0 (-20.0) — —
Massey Totals — 134.5 (+10.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 48% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 49% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LMU -5.0 (-18.0) 132.5 (+12.5) 63% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML LMU -4.5 (-17.5) 132.9 (+12.1) 65% ✗
Baseline ML LMU -4.2 (-17.2) 133.4 (+11.6) 65% ✗
Baseline Plus ML LMU -4.4 (-17.4) 132.3 (+12.7) 61% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LMU TAR
Overall 12-19 25-10
Conference 5-11 16-4
Home 8-8 13-4
Away 2-7 10-5
Neutral 2-4 2-1
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 71.2 72.6
Avg Pts Against 71.5 70.2
Massey 1.1 (#150) -1.4 (#192)
Bradley-Terry -0.50 (#237) 0.52 (#133)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.53 (#221) 0.60 (#141)
RPI 0.461 (#247) 0.518 (#146)
Shooting & Four Factors LMU TAR
FG% 43.3% 40.5%
3PT% 37.2% 27.8%
REB / G 36.6 33.8
OREB / G 10.0 12.0
AST / TO 0.98 0.81
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.2% 44.8%
TOV% 18.0% 19.8%
ORB% 29.7% 34.2%
FT Rate 24.9% 20.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.4% 49.9%
Opp TOV% 14.7% 21.1%
DRB% 73.5% 66.9%
Opp FT Rate 22.8% 25.9%

Game Analysis

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