Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | LMU -300 TAR +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +13 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | LMU -7.0 (-20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -5.0 (-18.0) | 132.5 (+12.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -4.5 (-17.5) | 132.9 (+12.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -4.2 (-17.2) | 133.4 (+11.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -4.4 (-17.4) | 132.3 (+12.7) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 16-4 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-7 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#150) | -1.4 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#237) | 0.52 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#221) | 0.60 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#247) | 0.518 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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