Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -275 UNCA +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +5 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -4.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -4.1 (+0.9) | 148.1 (+26.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -2.6 (+2.4) | 150.0 (+25.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -3.5 (+1.5) | 150.7 (+24.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -3.2 (+1.8) | 150.4 (+24.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | UAB 72 – 47 UNCA |
| Nov 10, 2021 | UAB 102 – 77 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-4 |
| Home | 12-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#230) | -3.1 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#171) | 0.48 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#213) | 0.48 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#180) | 0.529 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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