Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -4000 BCU +1900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +44 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -19.7 (+24.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -20.2 (+23.8) | 140.7 (+11.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -19.4 (+24.6) | 138.9 (+13.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -21.1 (+22.9) | 139.3 (+12.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -22.1 (+21.9) | 140.7 (+11.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2021 | UCF 81 – 45 BCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-8 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#80) | -8.5 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#99) | -1.56 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#96) | -2.13 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#102) | 0.415 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 37.2% |
Game Analysis
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