You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
Addition Financial Arena · December 30, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UCF -23.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Over
Money UCF -4000 / BCU +1900
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCF win
Actual UCF +44 152 Won
Massey UCF -19.7 (+24.3) — —
Massey Totals — 140.5 (+11.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 97% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 99% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UCF -20.2 (+23.8) 140.7 (+11.3) 90% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UCF -19.4 (+24.6) 138.9 (+13.1) 90% ✓
Baseline ML UCF -21.1 (+22.9) 139.3 (+12.7) 89% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UCF -22.1 (+21.9) 140.7 (+11.3) 89% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 5, 2021 UCF 81 – 45 BCU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCF BCU
Overall 17-16 17-17
Conference 7-11 11-7
Home 11-8 11-2
Away 3-7 5-11
Neutral 3-1 1-4
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 71.7 70.7
Avg Pts Against 67.9 73.7
Massey 6.8 (#80) -8.5 (#310)
Bradley-Terry 0.96 (#99) -1.56 (#296)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.30 (#96) -2.13 (#304)
RPI 0.547 (#102) 0.415 (#312)
Shooting & Four Factors UCF BCU
FG% 43.4% 40.7%
3PT% 32.8% 26.4%
REB / G 40.2 33.7
OREB / G 13.0 11.9
AST / TO 0.96 0.67
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.6% 44.7%
TOV% 17.4% 21.1%
ORB% 33.8% 31.9%
FT Rate 25.3% 25.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.3% 51.1%
Opp TOV% 22.5% 24.2%
DRB% 75.5% 64.5%
Opp FT Rate 28.9% 37.2%

Game Analysis

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