Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -24.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -2800 BCU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +36 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -17.9 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -14.6 (+21.4) | 137.5 (-11.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -12.8 (+23.2) | 145.8 (-19.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -14.2 (+21.8) | 143.6 (-17.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -13.5 (+22.5) | 140.9 (-14.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | UCF 98 – 54 BCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#89) | -7.7 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#70) | -1.32 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#66) | -1.82 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#71) | 0.458 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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