Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UND -138 STMN +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +25 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -1.4 (-23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -1.2 (-23.8) | 132.5 (-17.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -0.4 (-24.6) | 131.7 (-16.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -0.6 (-24.4) | 131.8 (-16.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -1.5 (-23.5) | 128.5 (-13.5) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UND 67 – 66 STMN |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UND 81 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 16, 2026 | STMN 91 – 80 UND |
| Mar 9, 2025 | STMN 85 – 69 UND |
| Feb 28, 2025 | STMN 86 – 71 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#266) | 0.3 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#179) | -0.18 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#196) | -0.11 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#205) | 0.474 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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