Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -556 KENT +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +20 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -9.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-29.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -9.3 (+10.7) | 137.5 (-25.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -10.4 (+9.6) | 138.4 (-26.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -10.2 (+9.8) | 139.3 (-27.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -9.5 (+10.5) | 139.2 (-27.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-0 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#60) | 3.9 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#122) | 0.39 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#111) | 0.70 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#67) | 0.534 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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