Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -27.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +33 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -31.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -27.6 (+5.4) | 164.6 (+10.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -24.3 (+8.7) | 160.6 (+14.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -27.9 (+5.1) | 161.1 (+13.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -27.5 (+5.5) | 160.5 (+14.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#11) | -11.3 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#21) | -1.13 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.92 (#16) | -2.04 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#33) | 0.409 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 45.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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