Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
| Money | WKU -225 ACU +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +2 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | WKU -8.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -7.2 (-5.2) | 150.4 (+19.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -8.1 (-6.1) | 149.5 (+20.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -8.2 (-6.2) | 149.8 (+20.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -7.8 (-5.8) | 152.9 (+17.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#162) | -3.5 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#110) | -0.67 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#132) | -0.58 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#150) | 0.468 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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